A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
