🔗 Share this article

When dawn crept over the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, delegates remained trapped in a airless conference room, uncertain whether it was day or night. Having spent 12 hours in strained discussions, with scores ministers representing multiple blocs of countries including the most vulnerable nations to the richest economies.

Frustration mounted, the air heavy as weary delegates faced up to the harsh reality: they were unlikely to achieve a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The latest global climate summit hovered near the brink of total collapse.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for nearly a century, the greenhouse gases produced by consuming fossil fuels is increasing temperatures on our planet to dangerous levels.

Yet, during over three decades of regular climate meetings, the crucial requirement to stop fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a resolution made two years ago at previous UN climate talks to "move beyond fossil fuels". Delegates from the Arab Group, Russia, and several other countries were adamant this would not happen again.

Mounting support for change

At the same time, a growing number of countries were similarly resolved that movement on this issue was vitally needed. They had created a initiative that was attracting increasing support and made it clear they were ready to stand their ground.

Less wealthy nations strongly sought to advance on securing funding support to help them cope with the growing impacts of climate disasters.

Critical moment

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were ready to leave and trigger failure. "We were close for us," stated one national delegate. "I was ready to walk away."

The pivotal moment came through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Around 6am, senior representatives split from the main group to hold a closed-door meeting with the lead Saudi negotiator. They urged wording that would subtly reference the global commitment to "move beyond fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Surprising consensus

Instead of explicitly referencing fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the UAE consensus". Upon deliberation, the Saudi delegation surprisingly agreed to the wording.

Delegates collapsed into relief. Cheers erupted. The settlement was done.

With what became known as the "Belém political package", the world took an incremental move towards the phaseout of fossil fuels – a hesitant, inadequate step that will scarcely affect the climate's steady march towards disaster. But nevertheless a important shift from complete stagnation.

Key elements of the agreement

• Alongside the subtle acknowledgment in the legally agreed text, countries will commence creating a framework to systematically reduce fossil fuels
• This will be largely a voluntary initiative led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the necessary cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was also put off to next year
• Developing countries obtained a threefold increase to $120bn of yearly funding to help them manage the impacts of extreme weather
• This funding will not be fully available until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in polluting businesses move toward the sustainable sector

Mixed reactions

As the world approaches the brink of climate "critical thresholds" that could devastate environments and throw whole regions into chaos, the agreement was far from the "significant advancement" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some baby steps in the right direction, but given the scale of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," stated one environmental analyst.

This limited deal might have been the maximum achievable, given the geopolitical headwinds – including a Washington administration who avoided the talks and remains wedded to oil and coal, the increasing presence of nationalist politics, persistent fighting in multiple regions, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic instability.

"Major polluters – the fossil fuel giants – were at last in the focus at these negotiations," says one environmental advocate. "This represents progress on that. The platform is available. Now we must convert it to a genuine solution to a more secure planet."

Deep fissures revealed

Even as nations were able to applaud the official adoption of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted deep fissures in the sole international mechanism for tackling the climate crisis.

"Climate conferences are agreement-dependent, and in a era of geopolitical divides, agreement is ever harder to reach," commented one global leader. "We should not suggest that these talks has achieved complete success that is needed. The difference between present circumstances and what science demands remains alarmingly large."

When the world is to avert the most severe impacts of climate collapse, the global discussions alone will not be nearly enough.