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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd